New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jared YoungBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jonah TongPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor scored on Pagán wild pitch, J. Soto to second on wild pitch by Pagán.3–6
- 9Lindor scored on Pagán wild pitch, J. Soto to second on wild pitch by Pagán.3–6
- 7De La Cruz walked, Trevino scored, Friedl to second, McLain to third.2–6
- 7Friedl singled to right, Steer scored, McLain to second, Trevino to third.2–5
- 7J. Young homered to right center (399 feet).2–4
- 4Hays homered to left (392 feet).1–4
- 3McLain homered to center (390 feet).1–3
- 3Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to left, Mullins scored.1–2
- 2Stewart homered to center (412 feet), Steer scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML NYM -135 / CIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 47.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +7 | NYM: Jonah Tong: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +16 Elo | CIN 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 21st of 3031–38 | Road vs home | 38–3315th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 8th of 301525 | Elo rating | 150019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–76 | 73–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 38–62 | 22–42 |
| Underdog | 27–14 | 50–26 |
| Overs–unders | 67–74 | 58–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–8 CIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.