New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Hayes hit sacrifice fly to left, Stephenson scored.5–4
- 4Stephenson doubled to left, Steer scored and Hays scored, Stephenson to third.5–3
- 4J. Soto doubled to right, Lindor scored.5–1
- 3Marte hit sacrifice fly to right, McLain scored, Friedl to third.4–1
- 3Vientos homered to center (427 feet).4–0
- 1Marte singled to right, Vientos scored.3–0
- 1Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Soto scored, Vientos to second.2–0
- 1Vientos reached on infield single to third, Lindor scored, J. Soto to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML NYM -120 / CIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −5 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +3 Elo | NYM 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3030–38 | Road vs home | 38–3215th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–75 | 72–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 38–61 | 22–42 |
| Underdog | 27–14 | 49–26 |
| Overs–unders | 67–73 | 58–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 7–8 CIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.