New York Mets at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Jahmai JonesBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pérez grounded out to third, Jones scored.10–8
- 7McKinstry singled to right, Greene scored.10–7
- 7Baty grounded out to second, Acuña scored, Mullins to third.10–6
- 6Nimmo singled to center, J. Soto scored.9–6
- 6J. Soto tripled to right, Torrens scored and Lindor scored.8–6
- 5Torkelson scored on Stanek wild pitch, Ibáñez to second on wild pitch by Stanek.6–6
- 5Torkelson scored on Stanek wild pitch, Ibáñez to second on wild pitch by Stanek.6–6
- 4Jones singled to right, McKinstry scored.6–5
- 4McKinstry tripled to right, Dingler scored.6–4
- 4J. Soto homered to right center (419 feet), McNeil scored, Mullins scored and Torrens scored.6–3
- 3Pérez homered to left (411 feet), Torres scored.2–3
- 2Torrens doubled to left, McNeil scored and Vientos scored.2–1
- 1Jones homered to left (429 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML NYM -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 44.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +3 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +41 Elo | DET 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3028–37 | Road vs home | 44–256th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 9th of 301521 | Elo rating | 151911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–74 | 66–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–61 | 46–53 |
| Underdog | 26–13 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders | 65–72 | 74–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 1–5 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.