Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jonah TongPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Johnston tripled to right, Norby scored.9–19
- 9Hicks homered to right (361 feet).8–19
- 9Lopez homered to left (383 feet), Marsee scored.7–19
- 8Torrens homered to left (350 feet), Baty scored and Taylor scored.5–19
- 8Taylor doubled to left, Nimmo scored and Marte scored, Baty to third.5–16
- 8Vientos homered to left center (415 feet).5–14
- 8Wiemer hit sacrifice fly to right, Johnston scored, Wagaman to third.5–13
- 6Nimmo homered to right (357 feet).4–13
- 5Lopez singled to center, Edwards scored and Marsee scored.4–12
- 5Marsee grounded into fielder's choice to first, Wagaman scored, Marsee second, Edwards third.2–12
- 5Wagaman singled to left, Johnston scored.1–12
- 2Lindor doubled to left, Baty scored and Taylor scored, Torrens to third.0–12
- 2Taylor doubled to left, Nimmo scored and Marte scored, Baty to third.0–10
- 2Marte singled to center, Vientos scored, Nimmo to third.0–8
- 2Alonso homered to right (371 feet), J. Soto scored.0–7
- 1Nimmo homered to right (380 feet), Alonso scored and Vientos scored.0–5
- 1J. Soto homered to right center (398 feet), Lindor scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 62%
- ML MIA +150 / NYM -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 58.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -161
- MIA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Jonah Tong (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +59 Elo | NYM 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 13th of 3032–34 | Road vs home | 43–258th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 24th of 301472 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–59 | 62–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–21 | 36–59 |
| Underdog | 69–38 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 66–68 | 63–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 13–20 NYM in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 33.