Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Ramírez scored, Lopez to second.7–4
- 7Lopez reached on infield single to second, Hicks scored, Ramírez to third.6–4
- 7Ramírez singled to left, Marsee scored on fielding error by left fielder Nimmo, Hicks to second.5–4
- 5Alonso homered to center (425 feet), J. Soto scored.4–4
- 3Lopez singled to left, Johnston scored.4–2
- 3Hicks scored, Johnston safe at second on error by pitcher Holmes.3–2
- 3Hicks grounded into fielder's choice to second, Edwards scored.2–2
- 1Nimmo doubled to right, Alonso scored and Lindor scored.1–2
- 1Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Marsee scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 70%
- ML MIA +215 / NYM -265
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 63.1%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -229
- MIA +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 5.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +7 | MIA: Adam Mazur: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +93 Elo | NYM 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 14th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 43–246th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 26th of 301469 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–59 | 62–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–21 | 36–58 |
| Underdog | 68–38 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 65–68 | 62–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 12–20 NYM in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 32.