Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4
- Kodai SengaPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mullins grounded into fielder's choice to second, McNeil scored, Baty out at second.5–1
- 5Edwards reached on bunt single to third, Sanoja scored on throwing error by third baseman Baty, Edwards to second.5–0
- 4Hernández singled to right, Hicks scored.4–0
- 3Ramírez homered to left center (386 feet), Marsee scored.3–0
- 1Lopez hit sacrifice fly to center, Marsee scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 63%
- ML MIA +160 / NYM -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 62.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -170
- MIA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +11 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +91 Elo | NYM 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3033–35 | Road vs home | 44–267th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301472 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–60 | 63–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–21 | 37–60 |
| Underdog | 70–39 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 68–68 | 65–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 14–21 NYM in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 35.