Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Joey WiemerBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-2, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris DevenskiPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Norby doubled to center, Hicks scored and Ramírez scored.11–8
- 7Norby hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramírez scored.9–8
- 6J. Soto homered to right center (382 feet), Lindor scored.8–8
- 4J. Soto homered to right center (386 feet).8–6
- 3Vientos homered to right (370 feet), J. Soto scored and Nimmo scored.8–5
- 3Hill grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Norby scored, Wiemer out at second, Marsee to third.8–2
- 3Wiemer singled to right, Wagaman scored, Marsee to second, Norby to third.7–2
- 3Marsee singled to right, Hernández scored, Norby to second, Wagaman to third.6–2
- 2Baty scored on throwing error by catcher Ramírez, Mullins stole second.5–2
- 2Baty scored on throwing error by catcher Ramírez, Mullins stole second.5–2
- 1Lindor homered to right (367 feet).5–1
- 1Wiemer doubled to left, Norby scored and Wagaman scored.5–0
- 1Wagaman doubled to right, Hernández scored and Lopez scored.3–0
- 1Hernández doubled to center, Edwards scored, Lopez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 62%
- ML MIA +150 / NYM -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 60.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -161
- MIA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +73 Elo | NYM 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 14th of 3032–35 | Road vs home | 44–256th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 26th of 301469 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–60 | 63–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–21 | 37–59 |
| Underdog | 69–39 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 67–68 | 64–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 13–21 NYM in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 34.