Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Clement scored.13–9
- 8McLain doubled to left, Benson scored.12–9
- 8Benson doubled to right, Steer scored.12–8
- 8Steer doubled to center, Lux scored.12–7
- 8France singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Bichette to third.12–6
- 8Varsho hit sacrifice fly to left, Straw scored.11–6
- 8Bichette grounded into fielder's choice to first, Springer scored, Guerrero Jr. to second, Straw to third.10–6
- 8Barger singled to right, Clement scored, Springer to third.9–6
- 7Marte singled to right, McLain scored, Friedl to third.8–6
- 7France hit sacrifice fly to right, Varsho scored, Kirk to third.8–5
- 6Barger hit sacrifice fly to right, France scored, Giménez to third.7–5
- 5Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (398 feet).6–5
- 5Barger homered to right center (376 feet), Springer scored.5–5
- 4Kirk homered to center (416 feet).3–5
- 4Varsho homered to right center (372 feet).2–5
- 3Springer homered to center (417 feet).1–5
- 2Marte doubled to center, McLain scored and Trevino scored.0–5
- 2McLain singled to center, Hayes scored, Trevino to second.0–3
- 2Trevino singled to center, Lux scored and Steer scored, Hayes to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML TOR -155 / CIN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- CIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 3.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Zack Littell: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +18 Elo | TOR 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 6th of 3035–35 | Road vs home | 38–3115th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 150316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–62 | 72–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 34–40 | 22–42 |
| Underdog | 42–22 | 49–25 |
| Overs–unders | 83–56 | 57–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–4 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.