Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ReynoldsPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tatis Jr. homered to center (414 feet).7–5
- 6Iglesias grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Laureano scored, Cronenworth out at second, Merrill to third.7–4
- 6Cronenworth reached on infield single to shortstop, O'Hearn scored, Merrill to second, Laureano to third.7–3
- 6Machado homered to left (387 feet), Arraez scored.7–2
- 3Mountcastle singled to right, Vázquez scored, Holliday to second.7–0
- 3A. Jackson homered to center (406 feet).6–0
- 3Mayo homered to center (401 feet).5–0
- 3Cowser homered to right center (420 feet), Mountcastle scored and Rivera scored.4–0
- 1Holliday homered to right center (407 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 63%
- ML BAL +155 / SD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- SD: Elo 60.6%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -167
- BAL +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 4.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | −7 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 1.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +75 Elo | SD 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 20th of 3032–39 | Road vs home | 43–245th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 20th of 301491 | Elo rating | 15307th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–69 | 78–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–37 | 33–42 |
| Underdog | 49–32 | 45–19 |
| Overs–unders | 62–77 | 61–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–4 SD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.