Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jeremiah JacksonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Jackson grounded out to shortstop, Beavers scored, Mayo to third.6–2
- 5Rivera singled to center, Henderson scored and Mountcastle scored, Cowser to second.5–2
- 3Arraez homered to right center (393 feet), Fermin scored.3–2
- 3Rivera singled to left, Mountcastle scored and Cowser scored, Rivera thrown out at second.3–0
- 1J. Jackson homered to left (372 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 62%
- ML BAL +150 / SD -180
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- SD: Elo 61.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -161
- BAL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 4.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +6 | BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +79 Elo | SD 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–39 | Road vs home | 43–233rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 20th of 301488 | Elo rating | 15337th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–69 | 78–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–37 | 33–41 |
| Underdog | 48–32 | 45–19 |
| Overs–unders | 62–76 | 61–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–4 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.