New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Reds- Austin HaysBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Soto homered to right center (393 feet).2–3
- 6Hays singled to left, De La Cruz scored.1–3
- 6De La Cruz doubled to center, Marte scored, De La Cruz to third.1–2
- 4Hays hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored.1–1
- 3Baty homered to right (381 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML NYM +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 50.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +5 | NYM: Brandon Sproat (no track record yet) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +4 Elo | CIN 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–39 | Road vs home | 39–3315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–77 | 74–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 38–63 | 22–42 |
| Underdog | 27–14 | 51–26 |
| Overs–unders | 67–75 | 58–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–9 CIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.