San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Fermin walked, Merrill scored on Senzatela wild pitch, Cronenworth to second.8–1
- 5Laureano homered to left center (438 feet).7–1
- 4Machado walked, Fermin scored, Arraez to second, Tatis Jr. to third.6–1
- 4Fermin singled to center, Cronenworth scored.5–1
- 4Sheets homered to right (451 feet).4–1
- 3Tovar singled to left, Arcia scored.3–1
- 2Merrill homered to left (372 feet).3–0
- 1Machado homered to left center (452 feet), Arraez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 69%
- ML SD -255 / COL +210
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- SD: Elo 66.9%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -223
- COL +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 6.1 – 4.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +122 Elo | SD 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 70.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 17th of 3034–40 | Road vs home | 23–5130th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 7th of 301526 | Elo rating | 138130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–63 | 69–73 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–44 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 45–19 | 67–69 |
| Overs–unders | 63–79 | 64–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 20–14 COL in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 34.