San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Goodman doubled to right, Moniak scored.0–3
- 5Beck reached on infield single to shortstop, Moniak scored, Goodman to second.0–2
- 3Goodman homered to right center (414 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 66%
- ML SD -215 / COL +180
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- SD: Elo 69.2%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -191
- COL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 6.0 – 4.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −1 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +140 Elo | SD 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 68.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 17th of 3033–39 | Road vs home | 22–5030th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 137930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–62 | 68–72 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–43 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 45–19 | 66–68 |
| Overs–unders | 62–78 | 63–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 19–13 COL in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 32.