San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Angel ChivilliPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak homered to right center (404 feet).10–8
- 7Beck homered to center (447 feet), Freeman scored and Moniak scored.10–7
- 7Moniak singled to center, Bernabel scored, Freeman to third.10–4
- 6Goodman homered to left (419 feet).10–3
- 5Arraez singled to left, Fermin scored and McCoy scored, Tatis Jr. to second.10–2
- 5McCoy reached on infield single to third, Cronenworth scored, Fermin to second.8–2
- 5Fermin singled to left, O'Hearn scored, Cronenworth to third.7–2
- 2Bernabel singled to right, Doyle scored, Tovar to second.6–2
- 2Doyle doubled to right, Beck scored.6–1
- 2Tatis Jr. homered to left center (441 feet), Cronenworth scored and Fermin scored.6–0
- 2Fermin doubled to left, Laureano scored and Merrill scored, Cronenworth to third.3–0
- 2Cronenworth reached on infield single to shortstop, O'Hearn scored, Merrill to second, Laureano to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 62%
- ML SD -185 / COL +155
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- SD: Elo 64.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 6.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +23 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: McCade Brown: team allows 1.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +103 Elo | SD 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 18th of 3033–40 | Road vs home | 23–5030th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 8th of 301525 | Elo rating | 138230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–63 | 69–72 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–44 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 45–19 | 67–68 |
| Overs–unders | 62–79 | 63–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 19–14 COL in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 33.