Boston Red Sox at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting1-3
- Luis MoralesPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yoshida singled to center, Story scored, González to second.7–0
- 8González singled to left, Bregman scored, Story to third.6–0
- 5Bregman singled to center, Duran scored.5–0
- 5Narváez homered to left center (422 feet).4–0
- 2Duran singled to left, Rafaela scored, Sogard thrown out at third.3–0
- 2Sogard singled to center, Yoshida scored, Rafaela to second.2–0
- 1Story homered to left (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -160 / ATH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -145
- ATH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 3.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +23 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Morales: team allows 1.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +17 Elo | BOS 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3035–37 | Road vs home | 29–4027th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 7th of 301527 | Elo rating | 147823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–69 | 80–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–50 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 39–19 | 64–44 |
| Overs–unders | 73–71 | 77–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–3 ATH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
