Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting2-4
- Zack KellyPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kayfus hit sacrifice fly to left, Naylor scored.8–1
- 4Sogard singled to left, Refsnyder scored, Duran to third.7–1
- 2Manzardo singled to left, Ramírez scored, Manzardo out stretching at second.7–0
- 2Kwan scored on Matz wild pitch, Ramírez to second on wild pitch by Matz.7–0
- 2Kwan scored on Matz wild pitch, Ramírez to second on wild pitch by Matz.7–0
- 2Rocchio scored on error, Ramírez safe at first on interference by catcher Wong, Kwan safe at third on error.5–0
- 2Kwan singled to left, Kayfus scored, Rocchio to second.4–0
- 2Arias homered to left center (414 feet), Naylor scored.3–0
- 1Ramírez grounded out to second, Kwan scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML CLE +130 / BOS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- CLE +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −16 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Brennan Bernardino: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +38 Elo | BOS 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 12th of 3033–36 | Road vs home | 44–278th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–70 | 74–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–40 | 36–47 |
| Underdog | 45–30 | 38–19 |
| Overs–unders | 65–72 | 70–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–9 BOS in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.