Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Manzardo homered to center (418 feet).4–6
- 6Story homered to right (306 feet).3–6
- 5Narváez singled to right, Eaton scored and Refsnyder scored, Rafaela to third.3–5
- 2Story singled to right, Wong scored, Bregman to second.3–3
- 2Rocchio singled to right, Jones scored and Valera scored, Kayfus to second.3–2
- 2Kayfus singled to right, Naylor scored, Valera to second, Jones to third.1–2
- 1González singled to right, Bregman scored.0–2
- 1Anthony scored on a balk, Bregman to third on a balk.0–1
- 1Anthony scored on a balk, Bregman to third on a balk.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML CLE +125 / BOS -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -135
- CLE +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +4 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +47 Elo | BOS 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3033–34 | Road vs home | 42–279th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 20th of 301490 | Elo rating | 15317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–68 | 72–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–40 | 34–47 |
| Underdog | 45–28 | 38–19 |
| Overs–unders | 63–72 | 68–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–7 BOS in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.