Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Story doubled to center, Bregman scored and Duran scored.7–11
- 8Duran doubled to right, Eaton scored, Bregman to third.7–9
- 8Bregman reached on infield single to third, Rafaela scored, Eaton to second.7–8
- 6Rafaela homered to left (395 feet), Yoshida scored.7–7
- 6Rocchio homered to left (387 feet), Manzardo scored and Noel scored.7–5
- 6Fry homered to left center (376 feet), Martínez scored.4–5
- 6Hedges homered to left (381 feet).2–5
- 3Lowe homered to right center (421 feet).1–5
- 2Anthony singled to right, Rafaela scored, Narváez to second.1–4
- 2Rafaela singled to right, González scored and Yoshida scored.1–3
- 2González singled to right, Lowe scored.1–1
- 2Noel homered to right (355 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 69%
- ML CLE +205 / BOS -250
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.4%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -218
- CLE +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 2.9 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +14 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +81 Elo | BOS 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3033–35 | Road vs home | 43–279th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 30 |
| 20th of 301488 | Elo rating | 15327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–69 | 73–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–40 | 35–47 |
| Underdog | 45–29 | 38–19 |
| Overs–unders | 64–72 | 69–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–8 BOS in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.