Boston Red Sox at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Nate EatonBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason BarnettPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler singled to left, Langeliers scored.4–5
- 9Refsnyder doubled to left, Rafaela scored.4–4
- 5Soderstrom doubled to left, Wilson scored and Rooker scored, Butler thrown out at home.3–4
- 4Duran grounded out to second, Eaton scored, Wong to third.3–2
- 3Story doubled to left, Bregman scored.2–2
- 2Kurtz homered to left (357 feet).1–2
- 2Eaton doubled to right, Yoshida scored, Sogard to third.1–1
- 1Langeliers homered to left center (373 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -115 / ATH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- ATH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.3 – 5.2 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −8 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ATH: Mason Barnett: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +33 Elo | BOS 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 6th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 29–4228th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 6th of 301533 | Elo rating | 147324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–69 | 80–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–50 | 16–21 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 64–45 |
| Overs–unders | 73–73 | 77–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 11–3 ATH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.
