Boston Red Sox at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Connelly EarlyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting3-4
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yoshida grounded out to shortstop, Duran scored.6–0
- 2González doubled to right, Sogard scored.5–0
- 1Refsnyder homered to left center (463 feet), Bregman scored and Story scored.4–0
- 1González homered to center (426 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 52%
- ML BOS +100 / ATH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- ATH: Elo 45.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATH -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.2 – 5.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | BOS: Connelly Early (no track record yet) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +33 Elo | BOS 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 11th of 3036–37 | Road vs home | 29–4127th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 6th of 301530 | Elo rating | 147524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–69 | 80–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–50 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 39–19 | 64–45 |
| Overs–unders | 73–72 | 77–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–3 ATH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.
