Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stephenson homered to left (357 feet), Lux scored.4–2
- 5Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to left, Merrill scored.2–2
- 5Merrill tripled to right, Laureano scored.2–1
- 2Benson homered to (409 feet).2–0
- 1Stewart homered to center (419 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 63%
- ML CIN +160 / SD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- SD: Elo 58.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -170
- CIN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −5 | CIN: Zack Littell: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +59 Elo | SD 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3032–38 | Road vs home | 44–255th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15297th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–69 | 80–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–43 | 35–45 |
| Underdog | 52–26 | 45–19 |
| Overs–unders | 58–86 | 63–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–9 SD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.