Cincinnati Reds at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kurtz homered to center (493 feet), Thomas scored, Butler scored and Langeliers scored.5–11
- 8Butler singled to right, Hernaiz scored, Thomas to third.5–7
- 7Wilson doubled to center, Langeliers scored, Wilson to third, Rooker thrown out at home.5–6
- 4Stephenson homered to right center (390 feet), Lux scored and Stewart scored.5–5
- 3Wilson hit a ground rule double, Langeliers scored, Rooker to third.2–5
- 3Butler scored on Greene wild pitch, Langeliers to third on wild pitch by Greene.2–4
- 3Butler scored on Greene wild pitch, Langeliers to third on wild pitch by Greene.2–4
- 2Cortes homered to right (398 feet), Hernaiz scored.2–3
- 2Rooker homered to left center (421 feet).2–1
- 2Benson homered to center (423 feet), Stephenson scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML CIN -125 / ATH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −10 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +27 Elo | CIN 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–39 | Road vs home | 31–4228th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 147622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–70 | 81–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–43 | 17–22 |
| Underdog | 54–27 | 64–45 |
| Overs–unders | 58–89 | 77–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–4 ATH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.
