Cincinnati Reds at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-2
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Carlos CortesBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cortes homered to center (413 feet).0–3
- 3Cortes homered to center (408 feet).0–2
- 1Butler homered to center (400 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 52%
- ML CIN +100 / ATH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- ATH: Elo 46.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATH -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.2 – 5.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −1 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +23 Elo | CIN 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–38 | Road vs home | 30–4228th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 147423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–69 | 80–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–43 | 16–22 |
| Underdog | 54–26 | 64–45 |
| Overs–unders | 58–88 | 77–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–3 ATH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.
