Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stephenson doubled to left, Marte scored, Stewart scored and Hays scored.11–6
- 9Stewart reached on infield single to third, Friedl scored, Hays to second, Marte to third.8–6
- 8Benson hit sacrifice fly to left, Stewart scored.7–6
- 7Herrera singled to left, Saggese scored, Donovan to third.6–6
- 7Donovan singled to right, Arenado scored, Saggese to second.6–5
- 7Friedl singled to center, McLain scored.6–4
- 7McLain hit a ground rule double, De La Cruz scored and Stephenson scored.5–4
- 6Contreras singled to left, Burleson scored.3–4
- 6Burleson doubled to center, Herrera scored and Donovan scored.3–3
- 3Andujar singled to center, McLain scored and Marte scored on fielding error by center fielder Scott II, Andujar to third.3–1
- 2Arenado singled to left, Contreras scored.1–1
- 2Stewart homered to left (417 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML CIN -105 / STL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- STL: Elo 52.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +8 | CIN: Zack Littell: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +18 Elo | STL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 19th of 3034–41 | Road vs home | 41–3416th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Elo rating | 147623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–72 | 70–80 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–44 | 24–46 |
| Underdog | 54–28 | 46–34 |
| Overs–unders | 60–89 | 79–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 17–19 STL in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 36.