Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Steer singled to right, Hays scored and Espinal scored.6–2
- 6Herrera grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Nootbaar scored on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz, Herrera second.4–2
- 5Lux scored on Pallante wild pitch, Stewart to second, Marte to third.4–1
- 5Lux scored on Pallante wild pitch, Stewart to second on wild pitch by Pallante, Marte to third on wild pitch by Pallante.4–1
- 4Steer homered to center (411 feet), Stewart scored and De La Cruz scored.3–1
- 1Burleson homered to center (411 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML CIN -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −9 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +23 Elo | CIN 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 19th of 3035–42 | Road vs home | 42–3516th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 147523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–73 | 71–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–45 | 24–47 |
| Underdog | 55–28 | 47–34 |
| Overs–unders | 61–90 | 80–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 18–20 STL in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 38.