San Diego Padres at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Laureano homered to left (374 feet).7–4
- 7Alvarez homered to right center (373 feet).6–4
- 5J. Soto homered to right (369 feet).6–3
- 5Machado homered to left center (401 feet), Cronenworth scored, Tatis Jr. scored and Arraez scored.6–2
- 4Marte homered to left center (418 feet).2–2
- 2Cronenworth singled to center, Merrill scored.2–1
- 1Alonso homered to left center (409 feet).1–1
- 1Sheets hit sacrifice fly to center, Tatis Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML SD +115 / NYM -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 49.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −4 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +5 Elo | SD 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 20th of 3035–41 | Road vs home | 46–299th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 151512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–68 | 68–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 38–48 | 40–66 |
| Underdog | 45–20 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders | 66–85 | 72–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 8–9 NYM in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.