Texas Rangers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Jacob LatzPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Alonso homered to right (390 feet), Lindor scored and J. Soto scored.2–5
- 7Pederson singled to right, Helman scored and Smith scored, Langford to third.2–2
- 6Nimmo homered to center (397 feet).0–2
- 5J. Soto grounded out to first, Alvarez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 61%
- ML TEX +145 / NYM -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -156
- TEX +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +16 | TEX: Jacob Latz: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +6 Elo | NYM 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–42 | Road vs home | 44–2910th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 151113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–70 | 66–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 35–42 | 38–66 |
| Underdog | 44–28 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders | 67–82 | 71–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–3 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.