New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Harrison BaderBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil singled to right, Marte scored, Alvarez to third.3–9
- 8Bader singled to left, Stott scored, Kemp to second.2–9
- 8Stott singled to right, Sosa scored.2–8
- 8J. Soto singled to left, Siri scored.2–7
- 7Schwarber homered to center (437 feet), Stott scored and Bader scored.1–7
- 7Vientos homered to left center (412 feet).1–4
- 2Bader homered to left (358 feet).0–4
- 2Kemp homered to left center (385 feet).0–3
- 1Castellanos doubled to left, Realmuto scored and Harper scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML NYM +115 / PHI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- NYM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.5 – 4.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +16 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +82 Elo | PHI 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–41 | Road vs home | 46–231st of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 9th of 301521 | Elo rating | 15472nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–78 | 73–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–64 | 53–61 |
| Underdog | 28–14 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 67–77 | 64–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 22–18 PHI in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 40.