New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4
- Nolan McLeanPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Harrison BaderBatting3-4
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 2Castellanos singled to right, Kepler scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 54%
- ML NYM -130 / PHI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 47.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −14 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–40 | Road vs home | 45–231st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 9th of 301522 | Elo rating | 15462nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–77 | 72–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–63 | 53–61 |
| Underdog | 28–14 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 67–76 | 64–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 22–17 PHI in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 39.