Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Brian NavarretoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Navarreto homered to center (401 feet), Winkler scored.9–3
- 7Stott homered to right center (395 feet), Bader scored and Kepler scored.9–1
- 7Kepler singled to right, Marsh scored, Bader to third.6–1
- 4Bader homered to left (410 feet).5–1
- 4Marsh homered to right center (420 feet), Realmuto scored.4–1
- 3Sanoja doubled to left, Mesa Jr. scored.2–1
- 2Kepler homered to right center (410 feet).2–0
- 1Harper singled to left, Turner scored, Schwarber to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 68%
- ML PHI -240 / MIA +200
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.2%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -212
- MIA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.1 – 3.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −6 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +72 Elo | PHI 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3036–36 | Road vs home | 31–3726th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301544 | Elo rating | 146825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–70 | 77–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 51–60 | 6–22 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 71–41 |
| Overs–unders | 63–77 | 69–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 20–15 MIA in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 35.