Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-4
- Lake BacharPitching2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-3
- Andrew AlvarezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 2Chaparro hit sacrifice fly to right, Lile scored.0–2
- 2Lile tripled to center, García Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML MIA -110 / WSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 47.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- MIA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +10 | MIA: Lake Bachar (no track record yet) · WSH: Andrew Alvarez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +15 Elo | MIA 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 7th of 3034–35 | Road vs home | 26–4229th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 143428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–60 | 65–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–21 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 71–39 | 63–52 |
| Overs–unders | 68–69 | 72–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 18–14 WSH in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 32.