Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Joey WiemerBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Nasim NunezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nuñez homered to left center (389 feet), House scored.5–10
- 8Hernández scored on a passed ball by Alfaro, Norby to third on passed ball by Alfaro.5–8
- 8Hernández scored on a passed ball by Alfaro, Norby to third on passed ball by Alfaro.5–8
- 6Nuñez singled to center, Hassell III scored.4–8
- 5Hernández singled to left, Edwards scored and Ramírez scored, Lopez to second.4–7
- 5Wiemer homered to left (403 feet), Wagaman scored.2–7
- 4House homered to left (364 feet), Hassell III scored.0–7
- 2Lile singled to right, Wood scored.0–5
- 2Nuñez homered to right (371 feet).0–4
- 1Alfaro doubled to center, García Jr. scored.0–3
- 1García Jr. singled to right, Wood scored and Lile scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 58%
- ML MIA -155 / WSH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 53.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −19 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +23 Elo | MIA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 28–4229th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301471 | Elo rating | 143728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–62 | 67–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–21 | 4–19 |
| Underdog | 71–41 | 63–52 |
| Overs–unders | 68–71 | 72–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 18–16 WSH in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 34.