Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Wood homered to left (394 feet), Young scored.2–5
- 4Norby singled to right, Hicks scored and Lopez scored.2–3
- 3Lile singled to left, Abrams scored.0–3
- 2Young singled to center, Adams scored, DeJong to second.0–2
- 2Adams doubled to right, Lile scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML MIA +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 49.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +6 | MIA: Adam Mazur: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +7 Elo | MIA 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 11th of 3034–36 | Road vs home | 27–4229th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301473 | Elo rating | 143528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–61 | 66–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–21 | 3–19 |
| Underdog | 71–40 | 63–52 |
| Overs–unders | 68–70 | 72–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 18–15 WSH in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 33.