Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schwarber singled to right, Kepler scored, Realmuto to third.4–5
- 7Lopez homered to center (417 feet).3–5
- 6Marsh singled to center, Schwarber scored.3–4
- 6Turner homered to left center (384 feet).2–4
- 2Castellanos tripled to left, Marsh scored.1–4
- 1Acosta singled to center, Hernández scored, Johnston to second, Johnston safe at third on throwing error, Acosta to second.0–4
- 1Lopez homered to left (424 feet), Marsee scored and Ramírez scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -135 / MIA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −1 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +57 Elo | PHI 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 6th of 3038–36 | Road vs home | 31–3926th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Elo rating | 146425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–70 | 77–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 53–60 | 6–22 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 71–43 |
| Overs–unders | 64–78 | 70–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 22–15 MIA in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 37.