New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Starling MarteBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Otto KempBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching8.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Harper reached on infield single to first, Marsh scored, Schwarber to second, Bader to third.4–6
- 6Bader singled to center, Kemp scored, Marsh to second.4–5
- 6Kemp doubled to center, Castellanos scored.4–4
- 5Harper doubled to right, Wilson scored.4–3
- 4Kemp homered to center (422 feet), Castellanos scored.4–2
- 1Marte doubled to left, Nimmo scored and Vientos scored.4–0
- 1Nimmo singled to right, J. Soto scored, Vientos to third.2–0
- 1Vientos singled to right, Lindor scored, J. Soto to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML NYM +100 / PHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +60 Elo | PHI 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–43 | Road vs home | 48–231st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–80 | 75–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 38–64 | 55–61 |
| Underdog | 28–16 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 69–77 | 66–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 22–20 PHI in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 42.