New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Max KeplerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty singled to center, Senger scored, Mullins to third.3–11
- 8Walton grounded out to second, Kemp scored, Stott to third.2–11
- 8Kepler homered to right (408 feet).2–10
- 8J. Soto homered to right (410 feet).2–9
- 7Harper homered to right (352 feet).1–9
- 6Kemp hit sacrifice fly to right, Marsh scored.1–8
- 6Kepler singled to center, Harper scored and Realmuto scored, Marsh to third.1–7
- 6Marsh singled to left, Bader scored, Realmuto to second, Harper to third.1–5
- 5Kepler singled to center, Marsh scored.1–4
- 5Marsh doubled to right, Realmuto scored.1–3
- 4Marte singled to left, J. Soto scored, Alonso to second.1–2
- 1Kepler hit by pitch, Schwarber scored, Realmuto to second, Harper to third.0–2
- 1Realmuto singled to center, Bader scored, Harper to second, Schwarber to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML NYM +135 / PHI -160
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- NYM +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.3 – 4.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +9 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +54 Elo | PHI 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–42 | Road vs home | 47–231st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 11th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15492nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–79 | 74–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 38–64 | 54–61 |
| Underdog | 28–15 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 68–77 | 65–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 22–19 PHI in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 41.