Texas Rangers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Dylan MooreBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Huascar BrazobanPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 7Moore homered to left center (388 feet), Langford scored.8–3
- 3Alonso hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored.6–3
- 3J. Soto hit sacrifice fly to center, Mullins scored, Lindor to third.6–2
- 3Alvarez homered to right (365 feet).6–1
- 1Helman doubled to left, Freeman scored and Heim scored.6–0
- 1Freeman singled to right, Jung scored and Osuna scored, Heim to third.4–0
- 1Osuna singled to left, Pederson scored, Jung to second.2–0
- 1Jung singled to right, Smith scored, Pederson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML TEX +100 / NYM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 3.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −13 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Jonah Tong: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +2 Elo | NYM 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3030–42 | Road vs home | 44–279th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 151412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–70 | 66–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 35–42 | 38–64 |
| Underdog | 42–28 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders | 66–81 | 70–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–3 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.