Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting4-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Roansy ContrerasPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sheets hit a ground rule double, McCoy scored and Tatis Jr. scored.6–9
- 7Moniak singled to left, Tovar scored.6–7
- 7Tovar doubled to center, Fulford scored.5–7
- 6Moniak homered to center (410 feet), Freeman scored and Tovar scored.4–7
- 4Moniak homered to right (406 feet).1–7
- 3Fermin singled to left, Cronenworth scored, Iglesias to second.0–7
- 2Merrill homered to left center (378 feet), McCoy scored and Tatis Jr. scored.0–6
- 1Iglesias singled to center, Merrill scored and O'Hearn scored, Cronenworth to third.0–3
- 1Cronenworth reached on bunt single to third, Tatis Jr. scored, O'Hearn to second, Merrill to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SD 72%
- ML COL +240 / SD -300
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- SD: Elo 74.3%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- SD -255
- COL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 5.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1375 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +5 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +184 Elo | SD 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 71.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–56 | Road vs home | 46–288th of 30 |
| 1st of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301375 | Elo rating | 15259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–78 | 82–67 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 37–48 |
| Underdog | 69–74 | 45–19 |
| Overs–unders | 67–82 | 64–85 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 15–23 SD in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 38.