Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting1-4
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting4-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8T. Hernández homered to center (445 feet).0–9
- 8Betts homered to left center (393 feet), Pages scored, Rortvedt scored and Ohtani scored.0–8
- 2Betts doubled to left, Ohtani scored.0–4
- 2Ohtani singled to right, Pages scored.0–3
- 2E. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Rojas scored, Pages to third.0–2
- 2Pages doubled to center, Edman scored, Rojas to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 75%
- ML COL +280 / LAD -350
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 75.5%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -296
- COL +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +14 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +195 Elo | LAD 75.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 75.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 75.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 74.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 30th of 3017–53 | Road vs home | 47–263rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 30th of 301377 | Elo rating | 15453rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–75 | 60–85 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 47–76 |
| Underdog | 68–71 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 65–80 | 72–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–30 LAD in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 38.