Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Basallo homered to right center (433 feet).1–2
- 6Freeman homered to center (420 feet).1–1
- 5Holliday scored on Casparius wild pitch, Henderson stole third.0–1
- 5Holliday scored on Casparius wild pitch, Henderson stole third.0–1
- 5Holliday scored on Casparius wild pitch, Henderson stole third.0–1
- 5Holliday scored on Casparius wild pitch, Henderson stole second.0–1
- 5Holliday scored on Casparius wild pitch, Henderson stole second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML LAD -175 / BAL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -156
- BAL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.2 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −9 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +32 Elo | LAD 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3031–36 | Road vs home | 31–3725th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–82 | 71–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 45–73 | 21–37 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 50–32 |
| Overs–unders | 71–69 | 63–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–2 BAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.