Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching8.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rivera singled to center, Henderson scored and Mateo scored, Cowser to second.3–4
- 9Cowser walked, Johnson scored, Mateo to second, Henderson to third.3–2
- 9Holliday homered to right center (362 feet).3–1
- 7Betts tripled to left, Rortvedt scored.3–0
- 5Betts reached on infield single to shortstop, Rojas scored, E. Hernández to third.2–0
- 3Ohtani grounded out to shortstop, Rojas scored, E. Hernández to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -145 / BAL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- BAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 3.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +22 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +9 Elo | LAD 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 18th of 3031–37 | Road vs home | 32–3725th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–83 | 72–69 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 45–74 | 21–37 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 51–32 |
| Overs–unders | 71–70 | 63–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–3 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.