Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting3-5
- Bradley BlalockPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Johnson homered to right center (408 feet), Díaz scored.3–11
- 8Crim doubled to center, Beck scored and Freeman scored.3–9
- 4Laureano doubled to left, Arraez scored and Machado scored.1–9
- 4Machado singled to left, Díaz scored and Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to second.1–7
- 3Merrill homered to center (408 feet).1–5
- 3Machado homered to left center (403 feet).1–4
- 2Tatis Jr. homered to center (409 feet), Cronenworth scored.1–3
- 1Laureano hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored on error, Sheets safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Moniak, Machado to third.1–1
- 1Beck singled to center, Freeman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SD 75%
- ML COL +280 / SD -350
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- SD: Elo 74.2%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- SD -296
- COL +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.6 – 4.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +2 | COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +183 Elo | SD 74.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 75.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 75.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 74.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–55 | Road vs home | 45–288th of 30 |
| 1st of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301377 | Elo rating | 15249th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–77 | 81–67 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 36–48 |
| Underdog | 69–73 | 45–19 |
| Overs–unders | 66–82 | 63–85 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 15–22 SD in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 37.