San Diego Padres at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fermin homered to left (372 feet).3–8
- 4Mullins homered to right center (388 feet).2–8
- 3Cronenworth homered to center (411 feet).2–7
- 2Alonso homered to center (437 feet).1–7
- 2Lindor homered to right center (382 feet).1–6
- 2Merrill homered to center (431 feet).1–5
- 1Baty homered to right center (416 feet), McNeil scored.0–5
- 1McNeil doubled to right, Alonso scored and Nimmo scored.0–3
- 1Nimmo singled to left, Lindor scored, Alonso to second, J. Soto to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML SD +105 / NYM -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −6 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +2 Elo | NYM 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 14th of 3035–40 | Road vs home | 45–299th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 9th of 301526 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–67 | 67–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 38–48 | 39–66 |
| Underdog | 45–19 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders | 65–85 | 71–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 8–8 NYM in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.