San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Sheets grounded out to second, Laureano scored.3–4
- 4Robertson singled to right, Quero scored, Robertson to second, Mead to third.2–4
- 4Mead singled to center, Tauchman scored, Quero to second.2–3
- 4O'Hearn singled to right, Laureano scored, Sheets to third.2–2
- 3Arraez singled to left, Cronenworth scored, Tatis Jr. to second.1–2
- 1Vargas homered to left (371 feet), Montgomery scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 62%
- ML SD -185 / CHW +155
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- SD: Elo 60.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +72 Elo | SD 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3036–42 | Road vs home | 32–4628th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 143528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–69 | 88–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–48 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 46–21 | 86–58 |
| Overs–unders | 67–86 | 75–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–0 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.