Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Kyle TeelBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benintendi homered to center (404 feet), Sosa scored.8–7
- 8Sosa singled to left, Vargas scored and Tauchman scored.8–5
- 8Vargas struck out, Meidroth scored on McDermott wild pitch, Vargas to first on wild pitch by McDermott.8–3
- 7Beavers homered to right center (408 feet), Westburg scored.8–2
- 5Beavers tripled to right, Henderson scored.6–2
- 5Henderson singled to center, J. Jackson scored.5–2
- 4Basallo homered to right (420 feet), Mayo scored.4–2
- 3Henderson singled to left, J. Jackson scored.2–2
- 3J. Jackson doubled to left, Carlson scored.1–2
- 1Teel homered to center (406 feet), Meidroth scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 51%
- ML BAL -105 / CHW -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- CHW: Elo 46.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHW -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +25 Elo | BAL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 3034–42 | Road vs home | 32–4428th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Elo rating | 143728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–74 | 88–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 54–35 | 86–57 |
| Overs–unders | 65–85 | 74–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 14–3 CHW in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.