Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Alexander CanarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting2-4
- Cade PovichPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Beavers reached on infield single to second, Holliday scored, Henderson to second.2–3
- 3Canario homered to left (409 feet).2–2
- 2Mayo singled to left, Cowser scored.1–2
- 1Rivera grounded out to second, J. Jackson scored, Henderson to third.1–1
- 1N. Gonzales singled to left, Triolo scored, N. Gonzales thrown out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML PIT +100 / BAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.2 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −23 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 1.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +21 Elo | BAL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–49 | Road vs home | 35–3825th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301474 | Elo rating | 149521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–69 | 74–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–28 | 21–38 |
| Underdog | 60–41 | 53–33 |
| Overs–unders | 61–85 | 63–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–5 BAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.