Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Beavers singled to right, Mateo scored, Johnson to second, Cowser to third.1–2
- 8Holliday singled to left, Cowser scored, Johnson to second.1–1
- 4Horwitz homered to right (386 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 58%
- ML PIT -155 / BAL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 47.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -140
- BAL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 3.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −5 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +15 Elo | BAL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–48 | Road vs home | 34–3825th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301475 | Elo rating | 149421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–68 | 73–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–27 | 21–38 |
| Underdog | 60–41 | 52–33 |
| Overs–unders | 61–84 | 63–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–4 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.