Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Tommy PhamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Jeremiah JacksonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Basallo singled to left, Henderson scored, Cowser to second, Mountcastle to third.2–3
- 9Pham homered to left center (376 feet).2–2
- 6J. Jackson homered to right (362 feet).1–2
- 1Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to center, Holliday scored.1–1
- 1McCutchen singled to left, Horwitz scored, Reynolds to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 58%
- ML PIT +130 / BAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.4 – 4.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +18 | PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +63 Elo | BAL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–47 | Road vs home | 33–3825th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301476 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–68 | 73–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–27 | 21–37 |
| Underdog | 59–41 | 52–33 |
| Overs–unders | 61–83 | 63–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–3 BAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.