Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-3, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Varsho scored, Guerrero Jr. out stretching at second.1–6
- 8Varsho doubled to right, Springer scored and Straw scored.1–5
- 7Clement singled to left, Springer scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–3
- 6Straw doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.1–2
- 5Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Schneider scored on fielding error by center fielder Cowser, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–1
- 3Holliday singled to center, Basallo scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML BAL +115 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- BAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −9 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 1.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +19 Elo | TOR 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 19th of 3033–39 | Road vs home | 47–252nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–72 | 81–65 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 36–42 |
| Underdog | 53–33 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 63–83 | 84–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 23–13 TOR in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 36.