Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Wells hit sacrifice fly to center, Domínguez scored, Volpe to third.1–3
- 4Kiner-Falefa grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bichette scored, Lukes out at second.1–2
- 2Wells hit sacrifice fly to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.0–2
- 2Domínguez singled to center, Bellinger scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML TOR +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- TOR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +3 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +50 Elo | NYY 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3037–35 | Road vs home | 41–2912th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 6th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15433rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–62 | 66–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 54–67 |
| Underdog | 43–22 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 84–57 | 70–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 20–17 NYY in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 37.